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CANADA: BoC Minutes Ahead With Markets Looking For Larger Cut Clues

CANADA
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  • The BoC minutes are still to come today at 1330ET, in likely their most overshadowed release yet with an unusually uncertain Fed decision to follow just 30 minutes later.
  • Gov. Macklem said at the Sep 4 press conference that there had been “strong consensus” for the third consecutive 25bp cut, as broadly the case for the July decision as well.
  • We watch for any further colour around the scenarios he talked to on both pausing cuts or ramping the pace of cuts up to 50bps, and a sense of bias towards those risks from Governing Council members looking ahead.
  • Senior Dep Gov Rogers yesterday said cooling inflation is “welcome news” after headline reached the 2% target midpoint although still wants to see more progress on core inflation measures.
  • BoC-dated OIS still shows sizeable odds of a ramping up the pace of cuts with 38bp priced for the Oct 23 decision and a cumulative 73-74bp for the two meetings left this year. 
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  • The BoC minutes are still to come today at 1330ET, in likely their most overshadowed release yet with an unusually uncertain Fed decision to follow just 30 minutes later.
  • Gov. Macklem said at the Sep 4 press conference that there had been “strong consensus” for the third consecutive 25bp cut, as broadly the case for the July decision as well.
  • We watch for any further colour around the scenarios he talked to on both pausing cuts or ramping the pace of cuts up to 50bps, and a sense of bias towards those risks from Governing Council members looking ahead.
  • Senior Dep Gov Rogers yesterday said cooling inflation is “welcome news” after headline reached the 2% target midpoint although still wants to see more progress on core inflation measures.
  • BoC-dated OIS still shows sizeable odds of a ramping up the pace of cuts with 38bp priced for the Oct 23 decision and a cumulative 73-74bp for the two meetings left this year.