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CANADA: Core CPI Could Start Tracking Below BoC Forecast

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  • Core inflation should remain the focal point, with the average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures seen falling two tenths to 2.35% Y/Y (2.2 and 2.5% Y/Y respectively) after a surprisingly large decline to 2.55% in July having previously plateaued at 2.7% for three months.
  • The closely watched three-month rate could possibly ease from the 2.7% annualized in July but there aren’t many analyst estimates for this metric.
  • Note that the BoC in July published its forecast for core CPI since 2016, although it did reveal that its own, previously internal, forecast had been revised down from 3.0% to 2.7% for Q2.
  • It looks for core CPI at 2.5% in Q3, which suggests that a consensus print could open risk of another downward revision, albeit possibly more modest. 
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  • Core inflation should remain the focal point, with the average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures seen falling two tenths to 2.35% Y/Y (2.2 and 2.5% Y/Y respectively) after a surprisingly large decline to 2.55% in July having previously plateaued at 2.7% for three months.
  • The closely watched three-month rate could possibly ease from the 2.7% annualized in July but there aren’t many analyst estimates for this metric.
  • Note that the BoC in July published its forecast for core CPI since 2016, although it did reveal that its own, previously internal, forecast had been revised down from 3.0% to 2.7% for Q2.
  • It looks for core CPI at 2.5% in Q3, which suggests that a consensus print could open risk of another downward revision, albeit possibly more modest.