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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Yesterday the RBA Minutes for the March meeting highlighted that, unlike recent meetings when several options were on the table, only the case for a 25bp increase – the resulting decision - was considered. The Minutes did however show that the Board agreed to evaluate the case for a pause at the April meeting.
- Given the BoC’s decision to pause earlier this month for the first time in this tightening cycle, tonight’s release (30 minutes before the FOMC decision) of the BoC Minutes for the March meeting may be worth a read given that it is likely to provide useful details on the deliberations.
- Also, of interest was Canada’s release of its inflation report for February yesterday. The report showed a further cooling in inflationary pressures with headline CPI rising a lower-than-expected 0.4% M/M and 5.2% Y/Y (0.5% & 5.4% expected).
- While core CPI printed just below 5.0% Y/Y (well above the BoC’s 1-3% target band), the inflation report suggested little urgency for the BoC to move off its pause.
- With RBA-dated OIS pricing no change from the RBA at the April meeting and more than 25bp of easing by year-end, all eyes will focus on February’s monthly CPI release next Wednesday once tonight’s FOMC policy decision is digested.
Figure 1: AU and CA STIR
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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