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Canada CPI - Tue 0830ET

CANADA DATA
  • Headline CPI is seen falling a non-seasonally adjusted -0.1% M/M in November, pushing the Y/Y two tenths lower from 3.12% to 2.9% Y/Y.
  • It would mark the second month this year within the BoC’s 1-3% control band, after 2.8% in June.
  • The BoC's preferred trim and median measures are also seen easing two tenths to an average 3.35% Y/Y for the lowest since late 2021.
  • Importantly, there is a chance of another sizeable moderation in the three-month rate of core inflation: with a strong 0.4% M/M in August dropping out, the same M/M as in Oct would see the three-month average of trim/median slow from 3.0% to 2.0% annualized.
  • BoC commentary around the December meeting was keen to caution putting too much weight on a short-term improvement in the data but such a reading could help bring forward the timing of BoC cuts with currently ~50/50 odds seen for March. That said, there is still another CPI release for Dec before the next BoC decision on Jan 24.
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