MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, June 17

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY4 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

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CBA: RBA Pricing Reflects Global Inflation Outlook

AUD

CBA note that "AUD has appreciated some 2.5% in the last two weeks. Some of that AUD strength reflects interest rate markets moving to price‑in RBA rate hikes. Markets are currently pricing a cash rate of more than 0.6% by the end of 2022. Market pricing contrasts with our forecast of no hike until May 2023 and the RBA's 'not before 2024' guidance. In our view, RBA pricing reflects the global, rather than the Australian, inflation outlook. Indeed, the recent lift in underlying inflation in Australia is muted compared to some of the other countries we monitor. We expect tomorrow's Australian CPI will reinforce this inflation divergence and challenge current market pricing. The implication is that AUD can fall if markets unwind expectations for RBA rate hikes."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsHomepage

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