CBI Sales Expected to Rise After Lockdown

CBI retail sales deteriorated further in Nov to the lowest level since June, although they came in stronger than markets expected (BBG: -35). Retail sales are expected to decline again in Dec, although at a significantly slower pace than in Nov. Orders placed upon suppliers improved to -10 in Nov, the highest level since Dec 2019. Internet sales surged in Nov, growing at the fastest pace since Oct 2018 which indicates a substitution of spending away from in-store shopping. Nevertheless, the CBI noted that sales are below average levels for this time of the year. The volume of stocks ticked up marginally, while stock adequacy remained broadly unchanged ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period. This is in contrast to previous Brexit deadlines where stocks increased markedly. The report noted that employment fell further in Nov, while investment intentions remain negative. Price growth remains subdued and it is expected to slow in Dec. Generally, business sentiment deteriorated in Nov.