CBO Estimates $3.3 Trillion 2020 Deficit

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects a federal budget deficit of $3.311 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019, mostly because of the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response.

• At 16.0% of GDP, the deficit in 2020 would be the largest since 1945. In CBO's projections, the average deficit over the 2021–2030 period is 2ppts more than annual deficits have averaged over the past 50 years.
• Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise sharply, to 98% of GDP in 2020.
• It would exceed 100% in 2021 and increase to 107% in 2023, the highest in the nation's history.
• CBO projections, however, have improved. Back in April, the CBO was projecting a $3.7 trillion deficit for this budget year and a $2.1 trillion shortfall in 2021. The projected 2021 deficit was trimmed back to $1.810 trillion in the new forecast.
• The Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget will announce the official results sometime in October, if the Trump administration sticks to the usual release pattern.
• See report here.