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CBRT Minutes:

  • Not much by way of changes in the narrative – which has been a recurring theme in the minutes for the past few months. Focus remains on 'transitory' supply side shocks to inflation which are out of the bank's hands.
  • Comments regarding volatility in short term inflation remain the same except the MPC see the period extending slightly further into 1H22.
  • Justifications remain dubious in terms of continuing to revise policy lower – reflecting the political nature of the CBRT's current reaction function and its inherent credibility deficit.
  • Little response from markets with USD/TRY treading water today ahead of the more important meeting with the banking regulator and commercial banks.