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CBRT Spent $108b on Currency Intervention in 2022, Bloomberg Say

TURKEY
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  • Turkey revised its domestic borrowing plan for February to TRY55.0b from TRY40.0b previously, according to a statement released by the Treasury and Finance Ministry yesterday afternoon. The borrowing plan for March has been left at TRY47.5b.
  • The Turkish manufacturing PMI rose two points in January, edging back into cautiously expansive territory at 50.1. This was the >50 print since Feb 2022. Declines in output and new orders were marginal in January as demand (including for exports) showed tentative signs of improvement. Employment ticked up for a third month. There are no other data releases left on the docket today, with CPI data taking the focus on Friday (Exp. +53.8% y/y; Prior. +64.3% y/y).
  • To mitigate the impact of looser monetary policy on the lira, Bloomberg estimate that the CBRT has made back-door currency market interventions of as much as $108 billion in 2022. That puts the bank’s stealth interventions last year at almost 13% of GDP. Bloomberg’s analysis calculates this figure by comparing estimates of net flows into reserves ($120 billion) with actual changes in net reserves over the year ($11.7 billion).
  • President Erdogan will address his party’s MPs at parliament at 0900 GMT/1200 local time. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce will publish January Istanbul inflation at 0900 GMT/1200 local time.
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  • Turkey revised its domestic borrowing plan for February to TRY55.0b from TRY40.0b previously, according to a statement released by the Treasury and Finance Ministry yesterday afternoon. The borrowing plan for March has been left at TRY47.5b.
  • The Turkish manufacturing PMI rose two points in January, edging back into cautiously expansive territory at 50.1. This was the >50 print since Feb 2022. Declines in output and new orders were marginal in January as demand (including for exports) showed tentative signs of improvement. Employment ticked up for a third month. There are no other data releases left on the docket today, with CPI data taking the focus on Friday (Exp. +53.8% y/y; Prior. +64.3% y/y).
  • To mitigate the impact of looser monetary policy on the lira, Bloomberg estimate that the CBRT has made back-door currency market interventions of as much as $108 billion in 2022. That puts the bank’s stealth interventions last year at almost 13% of GDP. Bloomberg’s analysis calculates this figure by comparing estimates of net flows into reserves ($120 billion) with actual changes in net reserves over the year ($11.7 billion).
  • President Erdogan will address his party’s MPs at parliament at 0900 GMT/1200 local time. Istanbul Chamber of Commerce will publish January Istanbul inflation at 0900 GMT/1200 local time.