Free Trial

Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish


Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High


'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate


Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

Latest Wahlkreisprognose poll ahead of next year's state election in North Rhine-Westphalia shows the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Free Democrats (FDP) coalition likely to lose power. North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany's most populous state and is seen as an important bellwether of German politics:

  • Wahlkreisprognose poll: SPD: 28% (-3), CDU: 25% (-8), Greens: 16% (+10), FDP: 14% (+1.5), AfD: 9% (+1.5), Die Linke: 4% (-1). Chgs w. 2017 election. Fieldwork 24-28 Nov, 1,400 respondents.
  • Based on this polling, the CDU-FDP coalition would not secure a majority. The most likely outcome would be either the formation of a 'traffic light' coalition of the SPD-Greens-FDP - mirroring the administration set to come into office at the federal level in the coming days - or a 'Jamaica' CDU-Green-FDP coalition.
  • The NRW election is scheduled to take place on 22 May 2022. There are two state election set to take place before then (Saarland on 27 March, Schleswig-Holstein on 8 May), but given the prominence of NRW in the national political debate it is this contest that will be watched most closely in 2022.