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Latest Wahlkreisprognose poll ahead of next year's state election in North Rhine-Westphalia shows the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Free Democrats (FDP) coalition likely to lose power. North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany's most populous state and is seen as an important bellwether of German politics:

  • Wahlkreisprognose poll: SPD: 28% (-3), CDU: 25% (-8), Greens: 16% (+10), FDP: 14% (+1.5), AfD: 9% (+1.5), Die Linke: 4% (-1). Chgs w. 2017 election. Fieldwork 24-28 Nov, 1,400 respondents.
  • Based on this polling, the CDU-FDP coalition would not secure a majority. The most likely outcome would be either the formation of a 'traffic light' coalition of the SPD-Greens-FDP - mirroring the administration set to come into office at the federal level in the coming days - or a 'Jamaica' CDU-Green-FDP coalition.
  • The NRW election is scheduled to take place on 22 May 2022. There are two state election set to take place before then (Saarland on 27 March, Schleswig-Holstein on 8 May), but given the prominence of NRW in the national political debate it is this contest that will be watched most closely in 2022.