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Free AccessCDU Facing Ouster In NRW State Election: Poll
Latest Wahlkreisprognose poll ahead of next year's state election in North Rhine-Westphalia shows the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Free Democrats (FDP) coalition likely to lose power. North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany's most populous state and is seen as an important bellwether of German politics:
- Wahlkreisprognose poll: SPD: 28% (-3), CDU: 25% (-8), Greens: 16% (+10), FDP: 14% (+1.5), AfD: 9% (+1.5), Die Linke: 4% (-1). Chgs w. 2017 election. Fieldwork 24-28 Nov, 1,400 respondents.
- Based on this polling, the CDU-FDP coalition would not secure a majority. The most likely outcome would be either the formation of a 'traffic light' coalition of the SPD-Greens-FDP - mirroring the administration set to come into office at the federal level in the coming days - or a 'Jamaica' CDU-Green-FDP coalition.
- The NRW election is scheduled to take place on 22 May 2022. There are two state election set to take place before then (Saarland on 27 March, Schleswig-Holstein on 8 May), but given the prominence of NRW in the national political debate it is this contest that will be watched most closely in 2022.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.