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CEE FX: CE3 FX Unfazed by EUR Spike Following ECB

CEE FX
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

The spike in the EUR in the immediate aftermath of the ECB rate cut and upward revisions to 2024 inflation and GDP forecasts has had very little impact on CE3 FX. EURHUF, EURPLN and EURCZK are each little changed compared to pre-ECB levels, with all three crosses well-contained within yesterday’s ranges. CZK continues to marginally outperform its peers while PLN lags ahead of Governor Glapinski’s post-NBP press conference at 14:00BST. Full technical update below:

  • EURHUF traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The move higher this week has resulted in a breach of an important hurdle at 391.40, trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 12 high. A clear break of this line signals scope for an extension towards 395.73, 76.4% of the Mar 12 - May 28 bear leg. Initial support is at 388.59, the 20-day EMA.
  • EURPLN has also recovered from its recent lows and has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4.2916. A clear break of the EMA signals scope for a stronger bounce and opens 4.3248 and 4.3441, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Apr 16 - May 28 bear leg. To reinstate a recent bearish theme, the cross needs to trade through support at 4.2715, Tuesday’s low.
  • EURCZK remains close to Wednesday’s lows, with bears eyeing further losses beyond the Jan 8 low of 24.458. Bulls look for a rebound above the 200-DMA, which provides the initial layer of resistance at 24.800.
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The spike in the EUR in the immediate aftermath of the ECB rate cut and upward revisions to 2024 inflation and GDP forecasts has had very little impact on CE3 FX. EURHUF, EURPLN and EURCZK are each little changed compared to pre-ECB levels, with all three crosses well-contained within yesterday’s ranges. CZK continues to marginally outperform its peers while PLN lags ahead of Governor Glapinski’s post-NBP press conference at 14:00BST. Full technical update below:

  • EURHUF traded higher Tuesday and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The move higher this week has resulted in a breach of an important hurdle at 391.40, trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 12 high. A clear break of this line signals scope for an extension towards 395.73, 76.4% of the Mar 12 - May 28 bear leg. Initial support is at 388.59, the 20-day EMA.
  • EURPLN has also recovered from its recent lows and has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4.2916. A clear break of the EMA signals scope for a stronger bounce and opens 4.3248 and 4.3441, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the Apr 16 - May 28 bear leg. To reinstate a recent bearish theme, the cross needs to trade through support at 4.2715, Tuesday’s low.
  • EURCZK remains close to Wednesday’s lows, with bears eyeing further losses beyond the Jan 8 low of 24.458. Bulls look for a rebound above the 200-DMA, which provides the initial layer of resistance at 24.800.