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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Market participants are preparing for Poland October CPI inflation coming out tomorrow (Oct 29, 9am London time), expected to accelerate to 6.4% YoY (far above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band).
- Tomorrow's print may also impact other CEE assets (i.e. Hungary, Czech Republic); rising inflationary pressures have been a concern for all the CEE region, and central banks have not hesitated to surprise the market by hiking more aggressively.
- Interestingly, while higher than expected inflation prints have generally resulted in a depreciation in the domestic currency, a positive surprise in inflation tomorrow could result in PLN strength with market pricing in a potential NBP reaction next week.
- The market is currently expecting the NBP to maintain its policy rate steady at 0.5% on November 3rd, following the 'aggressive' 40bps hike last month.
- With the FRA 3Mx6M currently trading 105bps above the Wibor 3M, the futures rate market is currently pricing in the NBP policy rate to be at 1.5% by the end of January 2022.
- On the other hand, a negative surprise (CPI inflation coming in lower than expected) could lead to further PLN depreciation, as the NBP will likely remain on hold next week.
- Key resistance to watch on USDPLN stands at 4.0160; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 4.0580 (May 2020 highs).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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