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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Rebounds Off Last Week’s Low

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF is trading slightly higher and remains above the recent low of 352.39, the Feb 10 low. The outlook remains bearish and attention is on 350.88, the Jan 13 low. This is a key support where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 348.55, the Sep 16, 2021 low. Resistance is at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 359.24. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal a possible reversal.
  • A strong recovery in EURPLN has defined support at 4.4828, the Feb 10 low. A bearish theme remains in place however price action will need to remain below resistance at 4.6013, Jan 31 low to avoid a strong bullish reversal. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4.4828 where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 4.4503, the Jun 6 2021 low and 4.4360, the Jun 7 low from last year.
  • USDZAR continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The key support levels to watch are; the Jan 21 low of 15.0669 and 15.1123, trendline support drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. Both were probed last week. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. While this support zone holds and prevents a deeper sell-off, a broader uptrend remains intact and the downleg since late November last year is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high.
  • USDTRY remains in a tight range around the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. The 50-day EMA at 13.0609 represents initial support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB has rebounded from 74.2611, Feb 10 low. Price is back above the 20- and 50-day EMAs - the EMA set-up remains bullish and does suggest that the primary trend direction is still up. Continued gains would signal scope for 80.4155, Jan 26 high. Key support is 74.2611.
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