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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: Watching The USDZAR Trendline Support

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF gains stalled last week just ahead of the 50-day EMA and is trading near its recent lows. The 50-day EMA - at 361.36 - represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break, if seen, would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 363.78, 61.8% of the Dec 24 - Jan 13 downleg. Moving average studies continue to suggest the broader trend remains down though and that recent gains are corrective. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • EURPLN is consolidating near its recent highs. The move higher from 4.5088, Jan 20 low has resulted in a break of the 20-and 50-day EMAs. An extension higher would signal scope for a rally towards 4.6180, 23.6% of the downleg between Nov 23 - Jan 20. Gains are still considered corrective though and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 4.5088 bear trigger.
  • USDZAR recovered last week from the recent low of 15.0669, Jan 21 low. The move higher means trendline support, at 15.0273 today, has remained intact - the trendline is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This line represents a key support and a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 15.7559, the Jan 31 high. A break would be positive.
  • USDTRY is lower but remains in consolidation mode around the 20-day EMA. The outlook remains bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB faced resistance late last week and is trading lower. The recent sharp sell-off suggests a short-term top has been defined at 80.4155, Jan 26 high. In pattern terms, last Thursday’s candle formation is a bearish engulfing reversal. A deeper pullback would open 75.3768, the 50-day EMA. Dips are considered corrective though. The bull trigger is at 81.4155.
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