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Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Poland: The NBP is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday. This follows a slightly more hawkish policy statement in January and guidance from Governor Glapiński that interest rates are unlikely to change through the remainder of this year. An updated set of macroeconomic forecasts will be released – including new inflation projections.
  • Malaysia: BNM is widely seen to be on hold. Domestic economic headwinds are evident but with FX weakness a fresh focus point (USD/MYR touched above 4.8000 recently, highs back to the late 1990s), now is not the time for BNM to turn dovish. A more hawkish outlook, or a surprise hike may help FX in the near term, but the large wedge between BNM's policy rate and the Fed's would remain. Hence we see the central bank on hold at this policy meeting.
  • Peru: BCRP is expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle and cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.0% next Thursday. This would be seventh consecutive cut, following the beginning of the easing cycle last September. Monetary conditions remain tight, and with the economy still in the early stages of a recovery and inflation easing, BCRP has room to cut further, although policymakers may keep a cautious tone.
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