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Central Bank Review – No Hint At Cycle End

PERU
  • On Thursday, the BCRP decided to increase the reference rate by 25bps to 7.75%, in line with the majority of surveyed analyst forecasts.
  • Guidance for the expected convergence of inflation to target was kept unchanged at the fourth quarter of 2023. However, in a slight adjustment to this paragraph, the downward trend in y/y inflation is now forecasted to occur from March, suggesting that inflation data may prove more persistent in the first quarter.
  • The board commented that “most leading and expectations indicators for economic activity recovered in December, but remain in pessimistic territory.” Regarding the global outlook, the previous reference to a lower growth profile in China was removed.
  • The board reiterated that they remain data dependent and reaffirmed its commitment to adopting the necessary strategy to ensure inflation convergence to target.
  • Link to statement: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Informative-Notes/2023/informative-note-january-2023.pdf
  • The next monetary policy session will take place on February 9, 2023.
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