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Central Bank Review: November 2022

PERU
  • The BCRP board decided to raise the reference interest rate by 25 bps to 7.25% on Thursday. Analysts had been split over a 25bp hike and an unchanged decision. A very similar statement from the BCRP increases the probability of additional hikes at coming meetings.
  • The statement noted a downward trend in year-on-year inflation is forecast and the committee still expects a return to the target range in the second half of 2023.
  • The BCRP stated that “most leading and expectations indicators for economic activity remain in pessimistic territory” while also highlighting the “outlook for global economic activity this year and the next has deteriorated due to expected policy interest rate hikes in advanced economies, lower growth in China, and international conflicts.”
  • The board kept its guidance unchanged that it remains committed “to adopt necessary actions to ensure the return of inflation to the target range over the forecast horizon.”
  • Link to statement is here: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Informative-Notes/2022/informative-note-november-2022.pdf
  • The BCRP next monetary policy session will take place on December 7.
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