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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINLAND
The latest opinion poll from Finland shows the opposition centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK) leading for the first time since April 2018. The right-wing populist Finns Party, which had led in all polls carried out in 2021 so far fell to third place, while the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) of PM Sanna Marin are in second place.
- Taloustutkimus poll: Kok: 20% (+4), SDP: 20% (-1), Finns: 18% (-4), Centre Party (Kesk): 14% (+2), Green League (Vihr): 10% (-1), Left Alliance (Vas): 8% (=), Swedish People's Party of Finland (SFP): 5% (+1), Christian Democrats (KD): 3% (=), Movement Now (LIIK): 2% (+1). +/- vs. 2 Dec. '20-5 Jan. '21. Fieldwork: 14 June – 6 July '21. Sample: 2,634 (1,868 revealed stance)
Chart 1. Finland Opinion Polling for Next Election, % and 2-poll Moving Average
Source: Taloustutkimus, Kantar TNS, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll.
- The strong result for KOK comes in the wake of the party emerging as the largest party in Finland's municipal elections, held on 13 June. KOK gained 64 council seats with 21.4% of the vote, compared to 17.7% for the SDP, which lost 248 seats. The agrarian Centre Party (Kesk) retains the largest overall number of council seats in Finland, but came in a distant third place with 14.9% of the vote, losing 376 council seats in the process. The Finns Party, despite coming in fourth with 14.5% of the vote experienced a positive swing of 5.7% from the 2017 election and won an additional 580 council seats across the country.
- Despite the strong polling for KOK, PM Marin's five-party leftist coalition continues to lead the opposition when party support is combined (see chart below), boding well for the gov'ts continuation with the next election not due until April 2023 at the latest.
Chart 2. Combined Opinion Polling Support for Gov't Parties and Opposition, % and 2-Poll Moving Average
Source: Taloustutkimus, Kantar TNS, MNI. N.b. Each dot indicates individual poll. Government Parties: SDP, Kesk, Vas, Vihr, SPF. Opposition: KOK, Finns, KD, LIIK
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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