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CGNCR Forecast a Bit Higher for FY24/25 Then Broadly Unchanged Through Forecast

UK
  • Looking at the OBR's central government net cash requirement forecasts (which are the main cash-based rather than accrual-based accounting forecasts and the most important for the gilt remit). There has been an increase from the Autumn Statement forecast of GBP5.8bln for the upcoming fiscal year FY24/25 of GBP5.8bln.
  • Being a little higher makes sense and fits in with the OBR's estimate that fiscal headroom fell to GBP8.9bln from the GBP13bln seen in the Autumn Statement.
  • The gross financing requirement was actually lower for FY24/25 as there is expected to be a GBP5.9bln reduction carried forward from the current fiscal year.
  • However, going forward the CGNCR forecasts only see more minor changes. Which means that the indicative gross financing requirements only see marginal impacts in future years (the biggest increase in these has been due to gilt sales since the Auturmn Statement of the 3.50% Oct-26, 3.75% Mar-27 and 4.50% Jun-28 gilts).


CGNCR AutumnCGNCR NewChangeIGFR AutumnIGFR NewChange
2024/25137.0142.85.8279.9276.8-3.1
2025/26111.1112.81.7269.7276.16.4
2026/27100.197.3-2.8205.0214.99.9
2027/28102.7103.10.4211.8212.20.4
2028/2993.196.43.3223.0240.017.0


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  • Looking at the OBR's central government net cash requirement forecasts (which are the main cash-based rather than accrual-based accounting forecasts and the most important for the gilt remit). There has been an increase from the Autumn Statement forecast of GBP5.8bln for the upcoming fiscal year FY24/25 of GBP5.8bln.
  • Being a little higher makes sense and fits in with the OBR's estimate that fiscal headroom fell to GBP8.9bln from the GBP13bln seen in the Autumn Statement.
  • The gross financing requirement was actually lower for FY24/25 as there is expected to be a GBP5.9bln reduction carried forward from the current fiscal year.
  • However, going forward the CGNCR forecasts only see more minor changes. Which means that the indicative gross financing requirements only see marginal impacts in future years (the biggest increase in these has been due to gilt sales since the Auturmn Statement of the 3.50% Oct-26, 3.75% Mar-27 and 4.50% Jun-28 gilts).


CGNCR AutumnCGNCR NewChangeIGFR AutumnIGFR NewChange
2024/25137.0142.85.8279.9276.8-3.1
2025/26111.1112.81.7269.7276.16.4
2026/27100.197.3-2.8205.0214.99.9
2027/28102.7103.10.4211.8212.20.4
2028/2993.196.43.3223.0240.017.0