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Challenger Job Cuts Extend Broad Stabilization But Hiring Particularly Anaemic

US DATA
  • Challenger job cut announcements fell to a non-seasonally adjusted 25.9k in July from 48.8k in June, with the relative decline matching that seen last year in a move that limited the increase to only 9% Y/Y.
  • The tech sector is back to accounting for the largest share of job cuts, with the 6.0k marking a 27% Y/Y increase as we increasingly move away from large base effects.
  • The report doesn’t materially change a trend where overall job cut announcements have broadly levelled out this year after large increases in 2023 (cuts have averaged -1% Y/Y in 2024 ytd vs an average 160% Y/Y in 2023.
  • Hiring announcements meanwhile offer a more dovish reading as they fell to 3.7k in July after a brief pop higher to 19.1k.
  • This is the second lowest monthly increase in the series history back to 2004 and the three lowest have all come in the past eight months (3.0k in Dec’23 being the lowest).
  • Being non-seasonally adjusted data, September still tends to be by far the more important month for hiring announcements but the data continue to show a reluctance to hire even if cuts have stabilized.

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