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Cheaper After Hotter Than Expected CPI Monthly Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -12.0 & XM -13.5) are 2bps cheaper, but have recovered from their worst levels, after the release of hotter-than-expected CPI Monthly data for April (3.6% y/y versus 3.4% est).

  • Meanwhile, Total Construction fell 2.9% q/q (estimate +0.5%) in Q1 versus a revised +1.8% in Q4. Building Work Done fell 3.7% q/q, with Engineering Work Done fell 2.1% q/q.
  • (Bloomberg) Australia’s inflation came in faster than expected in April, suggesting price pressures remain stubbornly strong and bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates at a 12-year high next month. (See link)
  • Cash ACGBs are 11-13bps cheaper on the day with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -16bps versus -20bps earlier.
  • Swap rates are 10-12bps higher on the day, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -11.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-11bps firmer on the day for meetings beyond August. Only 3bps of easing is priced by year-end from an expected terminal rate of 4.38%.
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