Cheaper And At Cheaps, Awaiting Jackson Hole Speeches

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are weaker and at Sydney session lows. With the domestic data docket empty today, local participants have likely eyed headlines and US tsys ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks this evening at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

• According to MNI’s technicals team, Aussie 3yr futures continue to trade below 96.340, the Aug 9 high, however, nearby support at 95.970, the Jul 26 low, remains untested for now. A break of 96.340 resistance would highlight an important short-term break and signal scope for an extension to challenge resistance at 96.730. Key support sits below at 95.730, the Jul 7 and 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -3bp at -9bp.
• Swap rates are 3-4bp higher.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -6.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bp firmer for '24 meetings. A 6% chance of a 25bp hike is priced for September.