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Cheatsheet for this afternoon/evening's activities in the UK House of Commons:

UK
  • UK lawmakers are set to vote on the 2nd reading of their Internal Markets Bill that gives government the power to renege on the already agreed withdrawal agreement with the EU. MPs are due to debate the motion throughout the afternoon with the vote seen taking place at 2200BST/1700ET. The government are not expected to lose this evening's vote. This is the second reading of the bill and MPs opposed will likely abstain rather than directly vote against the government.
  • The reason this bill is so controversial is the insertion of new clauses that give the government powers to override key elements of the withdrawal agreement signed by the PM in 2019 (and the basis of their election manifesto) and put the UK in breach of international law. The government have stated that the powers would be used only as a last resort, but will ensure the integrity of the UK if the EU were to demand unreasonable customs checks on goods passing between Britain and Northern Ireland.
  • However, markets should gain a view on just how strong the opposition is among Conservative party backbenchers.
  • The real test for PM Johnson comes next week when the bill goes into the committee stage and MPs debate the specific Northern Irish clauses.
  • The EU reportedly see the move as the PM's attempt to get negotiating leverage rather than a deliberate plan to blow up the withdrawal agreement itself. Further informal negotiations between Barnier and Frost begin tomorrow. It is possible that when the two sides meet again next week a mutually acceptable deal may be on the table. In those circumstances it's likely the PM will drop the clauses from the bill before it even reaches the statute book. (H/T The Times, MNI)
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