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Checking in On Payrolls Seasonality

US
  • One of Richmond Fed Barkin’s points earlier was that seasonal factors could be overstating the recent strength in hiring and spending, with a lengthened Christmas shopping season and warmer weather last month.
  • Checking in on net hiring trends, January’s far stronger than expected 517k increase (cons 189k) in nonfarm payrolls in seasonally adjusted terms came as the 2.505M net jobs lost were the least since 1995 for the month.
  • Whilst clearly a sign of a tight labour market, it’s hard to say how much of this outperformance was down to new hires or firms being reluctant to lay off workers amid shortages with almost twice as many vacancies as those unemployed.
  • Typically strong payrolls growth in February (NSA 1.7M in Feb’22) is another reason as to why February’s report, released Mar 10 before the Mar 22 FOMC decision, is likely pivotal after such a significant re-pricing higher of rates since January’s bumper payrolls with the terminal some 45bps higher at just shy of 5.3%.

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