Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, was revised up to 45.1 in December from 44.9, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation.
Growth in the first half of the year was softer than previously estimated while the second half of the year was not as weak as previously assessed. Including the headline Barometer index, 8 out of 11 activity metrics in the survey were revised lower in H1-2022. May saw the largest downward revision, with the Barometer revised lower by 1.8 points to 58.5 from its initial estimate of 60.3, while February recorded the biggest upward revision of +2.4 points to 58.7.
Downward revisions extended into Q3 with the quarterly average Barometer revised lower to 49.9 in Q3 (-0.1 point).
On the upside, business activity in the fourth quarter was revised higher for 10 out of 11 activity metrics. Only Production Materiel was revised lower in Q4. Order Backlogs saw the largest revision (+1.3 points), while Employment, Production, Supplier Deliveries and the Barometer were revised higher by 0.5 points in Q4.
Although most metrics ended the year in contractionary territory, activity was slightly stronger than previously estimated. Employment in particular was revised higher by 1.8 points in December to 42.6 while Production was revised up by 1 point to 40.1.
Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw relatively moderate revisions which largely produced a more smoothed result over time periods.
All subindices in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census X-12 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.