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Chicago PMI Signals US Manufacturing Contraction in Q4

US DATA
MNI (London)

The ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened by 1.2 points to 49.0 in November, following a (more pronounced) slide in the Chicago PMI from 45.2 to 37.2 (see story here).

  • The two indexes have a correlation coefficient of approx. 0.85 when calculated dating back to Jan 2008, implying a strong, positive relationship and a highly relevant advance indicator.
  • The Chicago Business Barometer is a time-tested leading indicator for US GDP.

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The ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened by 1.2 points to 49.0 in November, following a (more pronounced) slide in the Chicago PMI from 45.2 to 37.2 (see story here).

  • The two indexes have a correlation coefficient of approx. 0.85 when calculated dating back to Jan 2008, implying a strong, positive relationship and a highly relevant advance indicator.
  • The Chicago Business Barometer is a time-tested leading indicator for US GDP.

Keep reading...Show less