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China Diesel Demand to Drop in 2024: Sinopec

OIL PRODUCTS

China’s diesel consumption is forecast to decline this year by approximately 1m tons y/y to 194m tons due to displacement by other fuels, according to the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute. Diesel consumption grew 2.3% y/y in 2023.

  • Diesel for transport, which accounts for over 75% of total demand, is expected to rise +0.3% y/y at 151m tons.
  • Construction demand is forecast -1.4% y/y at 6.2m tons due to the weak property sector. Mining demand is flat at 9.2m tons and commercial consumption -6.3% y/y at 2.4m tons.
  • Replacement by gas and power is expected to rise from 22.7m tons in 2023 to over 25m tons with LNG replacing 8m tons and EVs replacing 13m tons.
  • Diesel supply is forecast to rise by 1m-2m tons to potentially boost exports with annual refining capacity increasing by 26m tons in 2024 to 960m tons.
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