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/CHINA: Fitch Ratings' Chief Economist, Brian....>

US
US: /CHINA: Fitch Ratings' Chief Economist, Brian Coulton, doesn't see "too big
a problem with respect to our current China 2019 growth forecast of 6.1%" if
China sees the last of trade tariff escalation from the US. If the trade war
heats up, however, say with a "new 25% tariff rate on the rest of US imports
from China. That would be a much more material threat to China's growth outlook
unless we saw some quite aggressive policy easing. It's hard to overstate the
impact of China on the global growth cycle - renewed weakening in China would
rekindle financial market concerns about global growth risks."

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