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China Liquidity Continues To Tighten, Raising Risks For Global Assets

CHINA
  • China 'liquidity and credit' conditions continue to tighten, after the total amount of Aggregate Financing came in slightly lower than expected at 1.92tr CNY (vs. 2tr CNY).
  • The chart below shows that the the annual change in Total Social Financing (TSF) 12-month sum has decreased from over 10tr CNY in October 2020 to nearly 0 in May 2021.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI


  • In the past cycle, tightening liquidity in China has generally had a negative impact on both domestic and international asset prices (especially risky assets such as equities).
  • The chart below shows that China Credit Impulse tends to lead global equities by 6 months.
  • Will the global reopening be enough to offset the sharp contraction in Chinese liquidity?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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