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China Should Increase Budget Deficit Ratio Next Year - Yicai

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China should set next year’s budget deficit-to-GDP ratio higher than 3%, up from 2.8% this year, to plug the fiscal gap between revenues and expenditures, Yicai.com reported citing analysts. A 3.5% rate could provide CNY4.5 trillion of funds but an additional CNY2 trillion would be required, which could be sourced from SOEs profits to fill the estimated CNY6.4 trillion fiscal gap in 2023, the newspaper said citing Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities. Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, said the rate should be raised to 3.1%, as local governments facing high debt burdens have limited room to add leverage, which would require the central government to be the main provider of additional leverage next year, Yicai said.

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China should set next year’s budget deficit-to-GDP ratio higher than 3%, up from 2.8% this year, to plug the fiscal gap between revenues and expenditures, Yicai.com reported citing analysts. A 3.5% rate could provide CNY4.5 trillion of funds but an additional CNY2 trillion would be required, which could be sourced from SOEs profits to fill the estimated CNY6.4 trillion fiscal gap in 2023, the newspaper said citing Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities. Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, said the rate should be raised to 3.1%, as local governments facing high debt burdens have limited room to add leverage, which would require the central government to be the main provider of additional leverage next year, Yicai said.