China Weekly Oil Summary: Seaborne Crude Imports Slow

Chinese seaborne crude imports are slowing this month and may have fallen below 10mbpd, Rohit Rathod, senior oil market analyst at Vortexa said, indicating demand weakness.

• Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest crude oil supplier to China in 2023 with Russian imports up 24.1% on the year to a record 107.02m metric tons (2.14mbpd) according to Chinese customs data on Saturday.
• Asian refiners are hoping 2024 jet fuel demand will be boosted by a further recovery from China and Southeast Asia, according to Reuters. China’s international flight numbers are expected to be 71% of 2019 levels in Q1 and 85% by year end, according to FGE. It should take half of Asia’s Q1 jet demand growth - 263k b/d.
• The US asked China to urge Tehran to rein in Iran-backed Houthi rebels who are attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea, according to the FT.
• EXCLUSIVE: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could reduce its policy rates as soon as late Q1 or early Q2 should the economy continue to struggle, however, its recent injection of 7-day repo has lowered the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut before Chinese New Year, economists and analysts told MNI.
• POLICY: Easier U.S. monetary policy should give the People’s Bank (PBOC) of China more room to support the economy, Governor Pan Gongsheng told reporters, announcing a 50-basis-point reserve requirement ratio cut effective Feb 5 to unlock CNY1 trillion.
• FROM THE PRESS: China’s infrastructure investment will underpin stable economic activity this year and grow by 8% y/y, according to Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Guangdong Securities.