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CIBC Ahead Of May GDP Report

CANADA
  • CIBC estimate May GDP to have increased 0.4% M/M for in line with the advance estimate.
  • It’s likely to be driven by large gains in manufacturing and wholesale, as well as a rebound in public administration following the end of the federal strike.
  • They see “a further, albeit slight, increase in activity” in June to leave Q2 GDP growth tracking close to 1.5% annualized for in line with the BoC’s MPR forecast.
  • “While GDP growth continues to hold up better than we, and others, anticipated at the start of the year, drivers such as manufacturing and wholesale suggest that this is in large part linked to an easing in supply chain disruptions. Modest growth in areas such as retail sales, air travel and restaurants suggests that consumer demand is waning due to the weight of higher interest rates.”

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