BOC SAYS DON'T EXPECT RATES TO RETURN TO PRE-COVID LEVELS

MNI BRIEF: BOC Says Time For Rate Cut Is Nearing

BOC REITERATES TIME FOR RATE CUT IS GETTING NEARER

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

US Treasury Auction Calendar

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE +59 BCF TO 2,484 BCF APR 26 WK

MNI: US MAR FACTORY ORDERS +1.6%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.5%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CIBC Caution On Wednesday’s Retail Sales

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • CIBC expect that nominal retail sales increased a “sluggish” 0.1% M/M in February, in line with the advance estimate.
  • “However, excluding autos, sales could have fallen by 0.2% (cons 0.0), following a jump in January that was likely boosted by milder than normal weather.”
  • They expect per-capita spending to look worse as households curtail discretionary spending with higher mortgage payments and the rising unemployment rate biting.
  • “Goods prices fell in February, which means that retail sales will likely show modest growth in volume terms.”
  • For Q1, they see “relatively healthy” goods consumption, “but that reflects a boost from activity amidst mild winter weather.” They see per-capita real retail sales roughly -1.5% Y/Y “and that weakness leaves the door open for a June cut from the BoC.”
124 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • CIBC expect that nominal retail sales increased a “sluggish” 0.1% M/M in February, in line with the advance estimate.
  • “However, excluding autos, sales could have fallen by 0.2% (cons 0.0), following a jump in January that was likely boosted by milder than normal weather.”
  • They expect per-capita spending to look worse as households curtail discretionary spending with higher mortgage payments and the rising unemployment rate biting.
  • “Goods prices fell in February, which means that retail sales will likely show modest growth in volume terms.”
  • For Q1, they see “relatively healthy” goods consumption, “but that reflects a boost from activity amidst mild winter weather.” They see per-capita real retail sales roughly -1.5% Y/Y “and that weakness leaves the door open for a June cut from the BoC.”