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CIBC See Flat July GDP, Only A Mild Lift In August Advance

CANADA
  • Released on Friday at 0830ET, CIBC expect Canada won’t see much of a bounce in GDP in Q3 after the negative Q2 reading, with July likely flat and the advance figure for August seen only increasing 0.2% M/M.
  • All of that will be clouded by the economic smoke from forest fires and a port strike, and we do expect somewhat better figures for Q4 as a result.
  • Still, the consumer led momentum we saw back in Q1 now looks like a blip in an otherwise tepid growth trend, one that we expect will be reflected in increased labour market slack as employers adjust their headcounts.
  • Through some of the volatility in GDP caused by these supply disruptions, we also expect to see further evidence that domestic demand is buckling under the pressure of higher interest rates, with resale volumes in the housing market easing again and consumer spending on services cooling.
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