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Citi on Mexico mid-terms:
- Following preliminary results, Morena seems to have underperformed according to expectations, especially in the lower chamber election.
- Even in the most optimistic scenario estimated by INE, the Morena-led coalition would garner 58% of seats, lower than the 66% they currently hold.
- At the state level, Morena seems to have performed relatively better. At the time of writing, the Morena-led coalition would probably win 11 states based on "quick counts".
- Out of about 93 million registered voters, the electoral authority estimated that about 52% may have shown up to vote, a significantly higher figure relative to the historical average of about 45% for mid-term elections.
- FX remains stable and things are likely to stay that way even if some results seem highly contested.