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CJEU Announces Verdict On CHF Loans, Supreme Watchdog Criticises NBP

POLAND
  • The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) is scheduled to start its session at 08:30BST/09:30CEST, during which it will announce its verdict in a case concerning controversial CHF loans (the actual announcement may be closer to 09:00BST/10:00CEST). Santander write this morning that the ruling may increase costs for the banking sector, increasing the need for lenders to boost FX purchases. It is widely expected that the EU's top court will issue a pro-consumer verdict. The CJEU usually follows that advice from its Advocate-General, who said in February that "after the annulment of a mortgage loan agreement due to unfair terms, consumers may assert claims against banks that go beyond reimbursement of monetary consideration; banks may not." The pro-consumer ruling could expose the banking sector to lawsuits, clogging Poland's overburdened judicial system and impose costs on banks. The estimates of these costs vary a great deal, but per BusinessInsider's calculations the most likely scenario would involve a total of PLN70-100bn in losses.
  • Poland's Supreme Audit Office (NIK) said that the NBP's decision to halt interest-rate hikes in October 2022 was premature and could support the government's economic policies rather than pursuing the official inflation target. Poland's supreme watchdog also criticised the lack of transparency in the preparation of the central bank's macroeconomic forecasts. It noted that in 2022 the NBP's NECMOD model was tweaked by staffers without any formal procedure of recording these changes, which would allow MPC members to have a full overview of how the main forecasting model evolved.
  • Looking ahead, the statistics office will publish final CPI data for May at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. Flash readings came in softer than expected, with local sell-side desks and the NBP taking note of a notable downside surprise in core components. The structure of the data will be scrutinised to confirm these insights. Official core CPI data will be published tomorrow.
  • NBP's Przemyslaw Litwiniuk (hawk) will speak on TOK FM radio at 09:40BST/10:40CEST.
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