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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Initial jobless claims for the week to Jun 17 came in at 264k, unchanged from a prior 264k (which reflects a +2k revision) - vs an improvement to 259k expected. Continuing claims meanwhile came in at 1759k vs 1785k expected in the Jun 10 week, and 1772k prior (revised -3k).
- This is the first time since the week of May 12 that initial claims haven't risen - they're up 17% since then (39k), so for the moment the series has plateaued at the highest level since Oct 2021. Indeed the sustained high level means the 4-week moving average rose 8.5k to 255.75k, the highest since Nov 2021.
- However, there continues to be limited corroboration of a deteriorating labor market in the continuing claims series, which posted a recent peak of 1,861k in the first week of April and has fallen 102k since then, including in 6 of the past 9 weeks.
- The low level of continuing claims doesn't suggest any major deterioration is imminent on the unemployment front. One possible explanation is that job losers are finding jobs quickly. Either way, the both the initial and continuing claims will be watched closely in the months ahead to see in which direction the nascent divergence resolves.
Source: BLS, BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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