CNB Expects Headline Inflation to Print at +7.2% Y/Y in September

The CZSO will publish September CPI data on Tuesday at 08:00BST/09:00CEST. Headline inflation may have cooled to +7.5% Y/Y from +8.5%, according to Bloomberg consensus. The CNB's Summer Forecast anticipates headline inflation of +7.2% Y/Y. Tomorrow's print will be the last one ahead of the anticipated temporary disruption to the disinflationary trend, caused by the statistical effect of the energy savings tariff introduced last year.

• Goldman Sachs expect inflation to print at +7.1% Y/Y due to base effects in energy and food inflation. They also expect the disinflation trend to continue in the remainder of 2023 after a brief increase in inflation in October. They note that any downside surprise to the CNB's forecast and any changes in core momentum will be significant for the CNB rate outlook.
• ING believe that inflation will come in at +7.2% Y/Y, with food and energy prices as well as the seasonal downward adjustment in recreation prices will outweigh the upward pull of fuel, education and clothing prices. They expect core inflation to print below the CNB's forecast, which should support their call for a rate cut in November.
• Komercni banka expect inflation to slow to +7.2%, noting that "regulated prices were probably lower on a month-on-month basis, reflecting a more significant drop in energy prices for households, as well as food prices, which reflected the seasonal effect of the new agricultural harvest".
• UniCredit write that Czechia's inflation likely eased to +7.4% Y/Y, reflecting easing price growth in all major groups (mainly food and housing" with the exception of transport. They remind that the disinflation trend will be interrupted in October, which may result in a brief jump above +9.0% Y/Y.