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CNB Minutes Show Imminent Recession is Core Expectation

CZECHIA
  • Local press focusing on the substantial pullback in inflation printed yesterday, with CTK citing analysts in flagging that excluding the austerity tariff on energy bills and the renewable energy fee waiver, CPI would have accelerated to over 18%.
  • The Czech Banking Association have upgraded their view on growth for 2022, and now forecasts 2.5% growth, up from their August view of 2.4%. They expect growth to slow substantially to +0.2% next year.
  • The CNB minutes from the unchanged November rate decision shows that the majority of policymakers see no wage-price spiral yet, however the council as a whole do see a recession in the near future. Full minutes release here: https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/bank-board-decisions/CNB-Board-decisions-1667490480000/?tab=record

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  • Local press focusing on the substantial pullback in inflation printed yesterday, with CTK citing analysts in flagging that excluding the austerity tariff on energy bills and the renewable energy fee waiver, CPI would have accelerated to over 18%.
  • The Czech Banking Association have upgraded their view on growth for 2022, and now forecasts 2.5% growth, up from their August view of 2.4%. They expect growth to slow substantially to +0.2% next year.
  • The CNB minutes from the unchanged November rate decision shows that the majority of policymakers see no wage-price spiral yet, however the council as a whole do see a recession in the near future. Full minutes release here: https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/bank-board-decisions/CNB-Board-decisions-1667490480000/?tab=record