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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
USD/CNH is pressing higher in the first part of Tuesday dealings. The pair last near 7.1270, close to earlier September highs (near 7.1310), which would also coincide with a test of the 20-day EMA resistance point. Earlier highs for the pair were at 7.1295.
- We do have China trade figures out later, with export growth expected to slow.
- Beyond that lies the US Presidential Debate (tomorrow morning APAC time). The chart below plots USD/CNH against Trump election odds (per PredictIt).
- There are obviously a lot of moving parts involved. The recent pull back in Trump election odds (as Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate) has also coincided with the market pricing in the Fed easing cycle (a broader USD negative).
- Still, the market can't completely ignore the recent firming in Trump election odds, given some opinion polls have suggested a split outcome for the two candidates. Trump's rhetoric around tariffs has also risen, given weekend comments that around 100% tariffs on countries that shun the dollar (BBG).
- As we noted earlier, the USD/CNH 3 month risk reversal is back into positive territory, and at fresh multi-month highs (last at +0.12).
Fig 1: USD/CNH Versus US Election Odds For Trump
Source: PREDICTIT/ MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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