Cold and Supply Risks Offset Early Winter Warm

TTF holding within the recent 110€/MWh and 120€/MWh range as a potential delay to the return of the US Freeport LNG terminal and upside risk of colder weather and higher demand are offset against the current warm weather, high LNG imports and almost full gas storage.

• TTF DEC 22 down -0.1% at 113€/MWh
• Weather forecasts for NW Europe are still showing as warm for the next week before trailing off towards normal in the second week of the forecast period. The warm start to the winter has reduced early winter demand and saved storage to ease supply risks for later in the season. Current European storage levels are holding steady at 95.36% as at Nov 8.
• LNG imports into Europe were around 425mcm/d at the start of the week. Norwegian supplies are still nominated down slightly at 315.8mcm/d after recent capacity reductions from the Oseberg field. Gas supplies flowing through Ukraine are again stable at 42.4mcm/d.