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COLOMBIA: HSBC Expects BanRep To Maintain 50bp Easing Pace For Now

COLOMBIA
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  • HSBC expects BanRep to keep cutting its policy rate at a 50bp per meeting pace, to 9.25% by the end of this year. They think that uncertainties stemming from the fiscal front will prevent a faster pace of easing for now, and that additional rate cuts, potentially at a faster pace, will be more likely in 2025, after the renewal of two seats at the board of the central bank.
  • HSBC forecasts a 5.25% year-end policy rate for 2025, slightly below neutral. The main risk to their forecast is the possibility of a faster cutting pace at some point if authorities feel comfortable with the decline of inflation expectations and the global environment of low rates.
    • For a full MNI review of Monday’s BanRep meeting, with other analyst views see here. 
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  • HSBC expects BanRep to keep cutting its policy rate at a 50bp per meeting pace, to 9.25% by the end of this year. They think that uncertainties stemming from the fiscal front will prevent a faster pace of easing for now, and that additional rate cuts, potentially at a faster pace, will be more likely in 2025, after the renewal of two seats at the board of the central bank.
  • HSBC forecasts a 5.25% year-end policy rate for 2025, slightly below neutral. The main risk to their forecast is the possibility of a faster cutting pace at some point if authorities feel comfortable with the decline of inflation expectations and the global environment of low rates.
    • For a full MNI review of Monday’s BanRep meeting, with other analyst views see here.