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Commerzbank Sees 25bps Hike

CZECHIA
  • As Czech core inflation has accelerated further, the Czech real interest rate is now the most negative in CE3, and this is taking a toll on the koruna exchange rate.
  • This was not manifested clearly because CNB was making sizeable FX interventions to defend the currency.
  • Nevertheless, as Tomas Holub correctly clarified in his interview, continued intervention (as a substitute for rate hikes) would begin to attract the attention of speculators and could end up in a messy situation.
  • In recent days, the koruna has begun to drift weaker and underperform CE3 peers.
  • Hence, it makes sense to hold a base-case where CNB will use its remaining ammunition sooner rather than later, raising the key rate today (25bps hike).

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