Commodity Related FX Still Outperforming NEA

USD/Asia pairs have traded in a mixed fashion today, albeit with some commodity related FX outperforming relative to North East Asia FX. IDR remains somewhat of a standout in terms of recent performance. YTD lows for USD/IDR aren't too far away. In contrast USD/CNH and USD/KRW dips were generally supported. Tomorrow is headlined by Philippines and Thailand CPI prints. Singapore retail sales (and PMI) are on tap. India services PMI is also out, along with South Korean FX reserves.

• USD/CNH dipped in early trade but was supported ahead of the 6.8700 level. We got above 6.8900 before offers capped the move. We were last around 6.8860/70. Higher USD/JPY levels and a firmer US yield backdrop weighing on CNH at the margins. Onshore equities are also struggling to maintain positive momentum.
• 1 month USD/KRW has also been supported on dips, albeit holding within recent ranges. Lows were close to 1302.50, but we are back to session highs now, around 1312/13. Earlier March CPI data showed slightly softer headline CPI pressures, but core remained sticky.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) little changed from yesterday's closing this morning, we remain well within recent ranges and below cycle highs seen in March. We sit ~0.6% off the upper end of the band. USD/SGD met resistance at the 20-Day EMA yesterday before falling ~0.6% from peak to trough as US Treasury Yields softened on Monday. The pair is marginally firmer this morning but moves have been limited with little follow through and last prints $1.3270/80.
• USD/IDR spot is down a further 0.35% so far today, last in the 14915/20 region. Earlier lows were close to 14900. A fresh break below this level will have the market targeting a move towards 14837, which is the YTD low for 2023. Recent highs (towards the end of March and earlier in April), come in around the 15000 level. The IDR remains a comfortable outperformer against the rest of Asia FX over the past week (+1.15%). Cross asset signals remain positive, with 5yr CDS back to 92bps. while global equities generally remain on the front foot. Palm oil also looks to be breaking above its simple 200-day MA. The Citi ToT proxy has bounced for Indonesia, albeit from depressed levels.
• USD/INR firmed yesterday finishing the session up ~0.2%. Rising oil prices weighed on the pair however gains were pared into the close as US Treasury Yields softened.• A reminder that onshore markets are closed today for the observance of a national holiday.• The pair closed below its 20-Day EMA (82.38), bears now target 200-Day EMA (80.95). Bulls look to target the 83 handle.
• USD/THB is lower in large part due to USD weakness post yesterday's close. The pair is back to 34.25/30, +0.35% firmer in baht terms. We remain above recent lows close to 34.00 though.