Cons. Look To Hold Key Mayoralties, But Overall Outlook Poor For Gov't

PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives have retained the mayoralty of the Tees Valley and according to reports are also likely to hold onto the West Midlands in a small boost in an otherwise poor outlook for the governing party as results come in from the 2 May local elections. The Guardian reportsthat according to its Labour sources, Conservative Andy Street is set to hold on in the West Midlands (results tomorrow). Notably, both Ben Houchen (Tees Valley) and Street (West Midlands) campaigned with very little reference to their party, instead seeking to win on their personal records.

• Despite these results, pollster Matt Singh notes on X: "The Conservatives are in danger of getting their worst locals result EVER in terms of Projected National Share. Currently tracking close to the 25% they got in 1995 (their worst since the measure began)..."
• Retaining these two mayoralties, and coming in second rather than third in the Blackpool South by-election is likely to prove sufficient for PM Rishi Sunak to avoid a leadership challenge - a scenario that could have engendered a snap general election.
• Instead, if Sunak is not challenged for the Conservative leadership the likely date for an election remains October-November, with the prospect of a tax-cutting/spending increase 'fiscal event' before then in a last effort to avoid a sizeable Labour majority.