Conservative Yoon Holds Narrow Lead 1 Month From Presidential Vote

With one month to go until the South Korean presidential election, conservative People Power Party (PPP) candidate Yoon Seok-youl holds a narrow lead over his liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) challenger, Lee Jae-myung.

• Over the last five opinion polls, Yoon's support has stood at an average of 41%, compared to an average of 36% for Lee. Third placed centrist People Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo sits on an average of 10% support in the last five polls, after his January bounce in support faded away (see chart below).
• The race has been dominated by bitter fighting between the candidates and parties, resulting in many voters turning off from the contest. Issues such as rising house prices, income and gender inequality, and high youth unemployment are dominating the campaign.
• Relations with North Korea are on the line in the vote. Conservative presidents have often expected full reciprocity in relations with the North, refusing to make any concessions unless Pyongyang agrees to the same. Liberal presidents, including incumbent Moon Jae-in from the DPK, have often pursued a 'Sunshine policy' of hoping that taking a less hardline attitude towards the North will breed good relations between both sides.

Source: Next Research, Gallup, KRi, PNR, Opinion Research Institute, Embrain Public, KSOI, Research View, Hangil, Korea Research, KIR, Realmeter, MNI

• Yoon also keener on closer relations with the US, risking Chinese wrath. Has voiced support for the deployment of more US THAAD missiles on South Korean soil, and for Soth Korea to enter into a tripartite military alliance with the US and Japan.