Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Conservatives Hit 14% Support In Latest Poll, Lowest Score Ever


The latest opinion poll from People Polling has the governing centre-right Conservative party securing just 14% support, the lowest level of backing ever recorded by the oldest political party in the world in a Westminster voting intention poll.

  • People Polling Westminster voting intention: Labour: 53% (=), Conservative: 14% (-5), Liberal Democrat: 11% (+3), Green: 6% (=), SNP: 5% (-1), Reform: 5% (+1), Fieldwork: 20 Oct. Changes w/ 12 Oct.
  • Remains to be seen what impact a new leader will have on the party. The prospective return of former PM Boris Johnson could bolster the party's standing in the midlands and the north, but would almost certainly see a swath of seats lost to the centrist Liberal Democrats in the south of England.
  • Even before then, a Johnson return could see mass defections or resignations triggering by-elections, so deep are the splits within the Conservative party.
  • While a very rough guide, the numbers from the above People Polling poll put into aggregator Electoral Calculus, if reflected exactly in a general election, would see the Conservatives lose every single one of their current seats. While this scenario is extremely unlikely, it highlights the huge mountain to climb for the gov't to regain support and credibility.

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.