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Conservatives Score Shock By-Election In Blow To PM Trudeau & Liberals

CANADA
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The centre-right main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has scored an unexpected win in the by-election for the Toronto-St. Paul riding, which took place on 24 June.

  • In an extremely close contest, CPC candidate Don Stewart won 42.1% of the vote to the 40.5% recorded for the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s Leslie Church. Toronto-St. Paul, covering the area north and northeast of Downtown Toronto, has been held by the LPC since the 1993 general election that swept away the Progressive Conservatives as a party. It turning blue for the first time since then will come as a notable blow to the LPC and PM Justin Trudeau.
  • The next federal election is not due until October 2025 at the latest, but having fought in three election campaigns and facing record-low opinion polling there is speculation that Trudeau could step aside before then in order to allow a new Liberal leader (Fin Min Chrystia Freeland seen as the heir apparent) to gain some experience and set out their agenda before the vote.
  • At present, Pierre Poilievre's CPC lead opinion polls by just under 20%, with the LPC now battling the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) for second place. Poilievre also leads in preferred PM polling, while the gov'ts net disapproval rating stands around a record low of -40%. All of this points towards a change in gov't from a LPC minority to a CPC majority at the next election.
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The centre-right main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has scored an unexpected win in the by-election for the Toronto-St. Paul riding, which took place on 24 June.

  • In an extremely close contest, CPC candidate Don Stewart won 42.1% of the vote to the 40.5% recorded for the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s Leslie Church. Toronto-St. Paul, covering the area north and northeast of Downtown Toronto, has been held by the LPC since the 1993 general election that swept away the Progressive Conservatives as a party. It turning blue for the first time since then will come as a notable blow to the LPC and PM Justin Trudeau.
  • The next federal election is not due until October 2025 at the latest, but having fought in three election campaigns and facing record-low opinion polling there is speculation that Trudeau could step aside before then in order to allow a new Liberal leader (Fin Min Chrystia Freeland seen as the heir apparent) to gain some experience and set out their agenda before the vote.
  • At present, Pierre Poilievre's CPC lead opinion polls by just under 20%, with the LPC now battling the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) for second place. Poilievre also leads in preferred PM polling, while the gov'ts net disapproval rating stands around a record low of -40%. All of this points towards a change in gov't from a LPC minority to a CPC majority at the next election.