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Consolidating, RBNZ In Focus


AUD/NZD has been consolidating in recent dealing, rallies have been capped by the 20-Day EMA ($1.0749) and support has been seen ahead of 2023 lows at $1.0667.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-year swap rates, have marginally widened to sit at -148bps however we remain off the cycle lows at -160bps.
  • Bears look to break 2023 lows at $1.0667, to target 2022 lows at $1.0471.
  • Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0749) to target the 200-Day EMA at $1.0883.
  • The RBNZ rate decision headlines the week, the Bloomberg survey looks for a 25bps increase in the OCR to 5.00%.
  • RBNZ dated OIS is little changed this morning across meetings ahead of the RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday. The April meeting is priced for 27bp of tightening, with terminal OCR expectations at 5.24%.
Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot, EMAs

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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