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Consumer Confidence Firms, Albeit From Historically Depressed Level

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  • Weekly consumer confidence firmed in the Bloomberg Nanos survey, further off the Oct 28 low of 42.1 to 43.4, but still historically depressed with the Dec’08 low of 43.3 and having only been notably lower in the Apr-May’20 pandemic lows of 37.2.
  • The recent uptick was seen across most survey components (past personal finances, current job security and forward-looking real estate values) although economic sentiment fell back.
  • The release itself didn’t have a large impact on markets but continues to add evidence of a weak consumer outlook, after a period where household consumption has been a major driver of GDP growth (added the entire 4.6pps to GDP growth of 4.6% Y/Y in Q2).
  • Indeed, the BoC expects GDP growth to stall in Q4/1H23 with equal chances of a small contraction or small positive growth.

Nanos Economic Mood IndexSource: Bloomberg

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  • Weekly consumer confidence firmed in the Bloomberg Nanos survey, further off the Oct 28 low of 42.1 to 43.4, but still historically depressed with the Dec’08 low of 43.3 and having only been notably lower in the Apr-May’20 pandemic lows of 37.2.
  • The recent uptick was seen across most survey components (past personal finances, current job security and forward-looking real estate values) although economic sentiment fell back.
  • The release itself didn’t have a large impact on markets but continues to add evidence of a weak consumer outlook, after a period where household consumption has been a major driver of GDP growth (added the entire 4.6pps to GDP growth of 4.6% Y/Y in Q2).
  • Indeed, the BoC expects GDP growth to stall in Q4/1H23 with equal chances of a small contraction or small positive growth.

Nanos Economic Mood IndexSource: Bloomberg